Contrarianism:When you presume that the opposing outcome is more likely, you are taking the “contrarian” view. In short, contrarianism is believing that the unlikely will likely occur.

Contrarianism is useful because, despite man’s efforts at predicting the future, events are constantly running contrary to his best forecasts. Three major factors cause forecasters to predict events that never occur: pride, fear, and greed.

Looking past the problems with human nature, there is another reason mankind is always wrong when it comes to predicting the future. Because of the sinfulness of man, God causes us to be led astray. In 2 Thessalonians, we read: "And for this cause God shall send them strong delusion that they should believe a lie: That they all might be damned who believed not the truth but had pleasure in unrighteousness" (2 Thes. 2:11-12).

Although the unreliability of man's prognostications about the future would cause some to pause, contrarians can use that unreliability as a productive forecasting tool. By simply taking the opposite viewpoint, contrarians are better able to grasp events that are yet to occur.

Contrarianism does have its limitations. Sometimes events happen just as man expected, and sometimes events transpire in ways that are different from the positive and the opposite expectancy. Contrarian thinking, however, can be a more reliable tool in forecasting events.


Contrarian Thinking In The Past:

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